Assessing the Role of Incubation Temperature as a Barrier to Successful Establishment of Coho Salmon (<scp><i>Oncorhynchus kisutch</i></scp>) in a Rapidly Warming Arctic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Warming associated with climate change is driving poleward shifts in the marine habitat of anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). Yet the spawning locations for salmon to establish self‐sustaining populations and the consequences for the ecosystem if they should do so are unclear. Here, we explore the role of temperature‐dependent incubation survival and developmental phenology of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) as a potential early life history barrier to establishment in an Arctic stream. We exposed embryos to temperatures previously recorded in the substrate of an Arctic groundwater spring‐fed spawning environment. Using a common garden experimental design, coho salmon embryos were exposed to treatments that thermally mimicked four spawning dates from August 1 to October 1 (AUG1, SEPT1, SEPT15, and OCT1). Spawning temperatures were 6°C at the warmest (AUG1) and 1.25°C at the coldest (OCT1). We observed low survival rates in SEPT1 (41%) and OCT1 (34%) and near complete mortality in the other treatments. While far below what is considered normal in benign hatchery‐like conditions, these rates suggest that temperatures experienced at these spawning dates are survivable. We detected differences in developmental rates across treatments; embryos developed 1.9 times faster in the warmest treatment (AUG1, 120 days) compared to the coldest (OCT1, 231 days). Differences in accumulated thermal units (ATUs) needed for hatching ranged from 392 ATUs in AUG1 to 270 ATUs in OCT1, revealing compensation in developmental requirements. Given these findings, the most thermally suitable spawning dates within our study are between September 15 and October 1, which facilitates hatching and projected nest emergence to occur in spring warming conditions (March–September). Broadly, our findings suggest that spawning sites within thermal tolerances that can support the survival and development of coho salmon exist in the North American Arctic. Whether the habitat is otherwise suitable for transitions through other life stages remains unknown.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".