Development of the next-generation air quality prediction system in the Unified Forecast System framework: Enhancing predictability of wildfire air quality impacts
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has developed an advanced regional air quality prediction system (AQPS) within the Unified Forecast System (UFS) framework to improve representations of wildfire emissions and their impacts on air quality predictions. This innovative system integrates the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model as a column chemistry model with the UFS-based atmospheric model, operating in an online mode. The calculation of wildfire gas and particulate emissions relies on satellite-derived fire products, high-resolution Regional Hourly Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Emissions (RAVE). A period in June and July 2023 with Quebec Canadian wildfires, which severely impacted air quality in the United States (US), was chosen as a case study to assess the predictive capability of the UFS-AQM system. The UFS-AQM predictions of fine particulate (PM 2.5 ) and ozone (O 3 ) were evaluated against AirNow observations from June 15 to July 14, 2023. The results indicate a substantial improvement in PM 2.5 predictions when compared to the previous operational forecast. Meanwhile, the system demonstrates a strong ability of predicting O 3 exceedance events during the dissipation phase of the wildfire. Furthermore, the online system shows more realistic predictions of aerosol optical depth (AOD) as compared to the previous operational forecast and satellite retrieval data. Finally, this study outlines a plan for further advancing a comprehensive regional AQPS at NOAA.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".