Net-zero transition model of Alberta’s heavy-duty trucking sector
Bibliographic record
Abstract
• Assesses feasibility of achieving Canadian targets for zero-emission truck sales. • New stock, flow and energy model for heavy-duty trucks including kilometer decline. • Assesses whole value chain requirements for battery and H 2 vehicle deployment. • Concludes that 2030 target for 35% of sales to be zero-emission is not achievable. • Identifies immediate need for infrastructure investments to meet 2040 target. As part of Canada’s commitment to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, Canada has set a zero-emission vehicle target of 35% of new heavy-duty (Class 8, 15+ t gross vehicle weight) truck sales by 2030 and near 100% by 2040. To assess the implications of these targets, a stock and flow model was combined with a vehicle-kilometre travelled model to quantify the changes required to transition from diesel vehicles to battery electric (BEV) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) in the province of Alberta. Given the BEV and FCEV vehicles and the supporting infrastructure that are available today, the 35%-by-2030 target was assessed to not be achievable. However, a target of 95% of new vehicles sales by 2040 could be achieved if work began immediately to design and build the necessary infrastructure, especially in providing cost-effective, low GHG hydrogen along critical corridors to support long haul transport.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".