Annual incidence of colorectal cancer among patients with average risk in the United States between 2017 and 2023.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
83 Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common cause of cancer-related mortality and third most common cancer in the United States. In 2021, 141,902 new cases of CRC were reported. With recent increases in early onset of CRC incidence, a shift in patterns amongst various demographics has been observed. Together with an estimated 60% increase in burden of CRC globally, it is important to continuously assess the nationwide incidence rates and monitor the changing patterns. In this study, we examined the annual incidence rates of CRC in average risk adults using a large national claims database and report patterns of incidence based on various demographic characteristics. Methods: CRC diagnoses were retrospectively identified from a large national claims database, which covers over 165 million lives and is representative of the U.S. population, for each calendar year during the study period from 2017 to 2023. Individuals aged 45 to 75 years, with an average risk of CRC before each index calendar year were included in the study. Individuals were required to be continuously enrolled in the same health plan for at least 1 year prior to and 1 year following the index year. Annual CRC incidence rates per 100,000 people were calculated for each year from 2017 to 2023 within various subgroups based on baseline demographics. Results: Overall, annual CRC incidences remained consistent during the study period with 186.86 (95% CI, 184.87-188.86) cases in 2017 and 183.40 (95% CI, 181.32-185.5) cases in 2023 per 100,000. Among younger adults aged 45-49 years, the annual CRC incidence increased by 66% from 2017 (92.04 cases/100,000) to 2023 (153.12 cases/100,000). Conversely, annual CRC incidence decreased by 25% between 2017 (328.52 cases/100,000) and 2023 (244.93/100,000) in older adults aged 65-75 years. Over the study period, CRC incidence in men was higher than women with an overall rate ratio (RR) of 1.206 (95% CI, 1.122-1.297). African American adults had higher CRC incidence than White Americans with an overall rate ratio (RR) of 1.216 (95% CI, 1.152-1.283). Conclusions: Based on this large study of national claims data, CRC incidence rates remained relatively stable in the total population among average-risk patients from 2017 to 2023. The continuing increase in recommended CRC screening utilization showed a decreased incidence rate in the older population, while observing increased incidences among younger patients.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".