Comparing outbreak regimes of western spruce budworm at low- and high-elevation sites in Idaho using dendrochronology
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The western spruce budworm ( Choristoneura freemani; WSB) is the most damaging defoliating insect in the Pacific Northwest. Despite general knowledge about climate influences on WSB, few studies have evaluated how outbreak dynamics are affected by local variability in climate. We used dendrochronological techniques to reconstruct WSB activity in Douglas-firs ( Pseudotsuga menziesii) at three low- and three high-elevation sites (representing climate variability) in Idaho, USA. We first tested different thresholds used in an established algorithm for determining WSB activity and found substantial variability in outbreak metrics. We then compared the timing of our reconstructed outbreaks with activity reported by aerial surveys, historical reports, and other reconstructions. Some agreement occurred in non-outbreak periods, but significant disagreement existed in the timing of outbreaks. Our assessment of topo-climatic influences on reconstructed WSB activity revealed that defoliation frequency was lower at low-elevation sites, with some inconsistencies depending on metric and threshold choice. Finally, we examined the influence of interannual variability of drought on outbreak initiation, finding no consistent effects. Our results reveal sensitivity to the choice of threshold of the reconstruction algorithm and suggest that more investigation is needed to better understand the role of climate, given future conditions that will likely be warmer and drier.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".