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Record W4407444781 · doi:10.1016/j.esg.2025.100242

Profit-seeking solar geoengineering exemplifies broader risks of market-based climate governance

2025· article· en· W4407444781 on OpenAlexaff
Kevin Surprise, Duncan McLaren, Ina Möller, Jean Philippe Sapinski, Doreen Stabinsky, Jennie C. Stephens

Bibliographic record

VenueEarth System Governance · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicClimate Change and Geoengineering
Canadian institutionsUniversité de Moncton
FundersSimons FoundationQuadrature Climate Foundation
KeywordsGeoengineeringCorporate governanceClimate changeNatural resource economicsBusinessProfit (economics)Environmental economicsEconomicsMicroeconomicsFinance

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Despite uncertainties about its feasibility and desirability, start-up companies seeking to profit from solar geoengineering have begun to emerge. One company is releasing balloons filled with sulfur dioxide to sell “cooling credits”, claiming that the cooling achieved when 1 g of SO 2 is released is equivalent to offsetting one ton of carbon dioxide for one year. Another aspires to deliver returns to investors from the development of a proprietary aerosol for dispersal in the stratosphere. Such for-profit solar geoengineering enterprises should not be understood merely as rogue opportunists. These proposals are not only scientifically questionable, and premature in the absence of effective governance, but they are a predictable consequence of neoliberal, market-driven climate governance. The structures and incentives of market-based climate policy - circumscribed by neoliberalism's emphasis on technological innovation, venture capital, and the marketization of environmental goods - have generated repeated efforts to profit from various forms of geoengineering. With a climate governance regime wherein private, for-profit actors significantly influence and weaken climate policy, de facto governance of solar geoengineering has emerged, dominated by actors linked to Silicon Valley funders and ideologies. Without more explicit efforts to curb the power of private sector actors, including commercial geoengineering bans and non-use provisions, pursuit of techno-market “solutions” could lead to both inadequate mitigation and increasingly risky reliance on geoengineering.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.008
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.007
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.010
Threshold uncertainty score0.042

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0080.007
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0040.021
Scholarly communication0.0100.006
Open science0.0010.007
Research integrity0.0040.004
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0050.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.016
GPT teacher head0.236
Teacher spread0.220 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations2
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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