Using a multi-strain infectious disease model with physical information neural networks to study the time dependence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern
Bibliographic record
Abstract
With the ongoing evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its increasing adaptation to humans, several variants of concern (VOCs) and variants of interest (VOIs) have been identified since late 2020. These include Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Omicron parent lineage, and other variants. These variants may show distinct levels of virulence, antigenicity, and infectivity, which require specific defense and control measures. In this study, we propose an [Formula: see text] infectious disease model to simulate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants among the human population. We combine the proposed epidemic model and reported infected data of variants with physical information neural networks (PINNs) to develop a novel mechanism called VOCs-informed neural network (VOCs-INN). In our experiments, we found that this algorithm can accurately fit the reported data of the British Columbia (BC) province and its five internal health agencies in Canada. Furthermore, it can simulate observed or unobserved dynamics, infer time-dependent parameters, and enable short-term predictions. The experimental results also reveal variations in the intensity of control strategies implemented across these regions. VOCs-INN performs well in fitting and forecasting when analyzing long-term or multi-wave data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".