Self supervised artificial intelligence predicts poor outcome from primary cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma at diagnosis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Primary cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is responsible for ~10,000 deaths annually in the United States. Stratification of risk of poor outcome (PO) including recurrence, metastasis and disease specific death (DSD) at initial biopsy would significantly impact clinical decision-making during the initial post operative period where intervention has been shown to be most effective. In this multi-institutional study, we developed a state-of-the-art self-supervised deep-learning approach with interpretability power and demonstrated its ability to predict poor outcomes of cSCCs at the time of initial biopsy. By highlighting histomorphological phenotypes, our approach demonstrates that poor differentiation and deep invasion correlate with poor prognosis. Our approach is particularly efficient at defining poor outcome risk in Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH) T2a and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) T2 cSCCs. This bridges a significant gap in our ability to assess risk among T2a/T2 cSCCs and may be useful in defining patients at highest risk of poor outcome at the time of diagnosis. Early identification of highest-risk patients could signal implementation of more stringent surveillance, rigorous diagnostic work up and identify patients who might best respond to early postoperative adjunctive treatment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".