Risk and impact of stroke across 38 countries and territories of the Americas from 1990 to 2021: a population-based trends analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Despite substantial declines in burden over time, stroke remains a public health threat in the Americas. This study aimed to assess the current magnitude, trends, and disparities in the estimates of stroke burden by sex and age in the Americas from 1990 to 2021. Methods: Estimates from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2021 were used to analyze incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost due to premature death, years lived with disabilities, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by stroke and its major subtypes stratified by age, and sex in the Americas from 1990 to 2021. We used Joinpoint regression analysis to estimate the average annual percent change (AAPC) of stroke mortality and disease burden outcomes and assessed trends. Findings: In 2021, there were 1.1 million (95% uncertainty interval: 1.0-1.2) new cases, 12.9 million (12.3-13.7) prevalent cases, 0.5 million (0.5-0.6) deaths, and 11.4 million (10.6-12.1) DALYs due to stroke in the Americas. The absolute number of stroke burden outcomes increased from 1990 to 2021, but their corresponding age-standardized rates significantly declined. A deceleration in reduction rates of burden outcomes for all strokes and most stroke subtypes occurred over the last decade, with pronounced difference between sexes mainly in incidence among younger groups. From 2015 to 2021, trends in incidence rates from all stroke and stroke subtypes reversed to increase in most age groups, and strikingly, trends in mortality and DALY rates from ischemic stroke among younger populations reversed to upward with AAPC over 1.4%. A substantial number of countries contributed to these increasing trends. Interpretation: Regionally, the annual number of stroke cases and deaths significantly increased from 1990 to 2021, despite reductions in age-standardized rates. The declining pace in age-standardized stroke rates has decelerated in recent years, while trends in incidence, and ischemic stroke mortality and DALY among middle-aged adults and adults, reversed towards upward in the period 2015-2021. Further studies are needed to understand the determinants of this recent pattern and identify the most cost-effective interventions to stem this alarming trend. Funding: There was no funding source for this study.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".