Airborne and Ground Measurements for Vertical Profiling of Secondary Ice Production during Ice Pellet Precipitation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract During freezing rain, secondary ice produced by the fragmentation of freezing drops (FFD) can initiate a chain reaction, potentially transitioning freezing rain into ice pellets. Including this process in numerical weather prediction models is challenging due to the uncertainty of this mechanism. To bridge this gap, this study aims to evaluate the efficiency of the FFD process during ice pellet precipitation using measurements collected onboard the National Research Council Canada (NRC) Convair-580 research aircraft during the 2022 Winter Precipitation Type Research Multiscale Experiment (WINTRE-MIX). Below the supercooled raindrops freezing altitude, in situ probes measured a bimodal particle size distribution. Observations from imaging and optical-array probes show that most particles smaller than 500 μ m in diameter were nonspherical ice crystals, in the concentration of ∼500 L −1 . In contrast, most particles larger than 500 μ m were identified as fractured ice pellets and ice pellets with bulges, which suggested the occurrence of the FFD process. A conceptual model is then developed to show that five–eight fragments of ice were produced for each freezing drop. Two existing parameterizations of the FFD process are also tested. It is shown that one parameterization would result in less ice crystals than the measured number concentration, while the second one would result in too many ice crystals. Adjustments to these parameterizations are computed based on the collected observations. This analysis will be valuable for including the FFD process into simulations of freezing rain, ice pellets, and other weather phenomena where this process plays a significant role. Significance Statement This study presents unique measurements from a winter storm recorded by state-of-the-art instruments onboard a research aircraft at the altitude where ice pellets are formed. The collected data suggest that the freezing of a few initial raindrops at an altitude of around 250 m above the ground resulted in the production of ice crystals. These ice crystals led to the freezing of additional raindrops in a feedback loop that can be referred to as ice multiplication. This process is quantified in the current study. The results will be valuable in improving the representation of ice pellets and freezing rain in computer simulations of winter storms.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".