Sex and age differences in the association between obesity and long-term changes with the risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus: the Rural Deqing Cohort Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: In the past decade, diabetes prevalence in China increased significantly, with many cases undiagnosed, particularly in rural areas. Despite the limitations of body mass index (BMI) in assessing visceral fat, obesity indices like waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) have shown stronger associations with the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Few cohort studies, especially in rural China, have examined the predictive power of these obesity indices and their changes on T2DM risk. We aimed to assess sex and age difference in the association between obesity, long-term waist circumference and weight changes with the risk of T2DM among rural Chinese adults. Methods: Population-based cohort study of 15,076 adult participants was conducted from 2006.08.11 to 2014.07.19 in rural Deqing, China. Participants were annually followed up for the occurrence of major chronic diseases and vital status through the Deqing electronic health records system from enrollment to December 31st, 2021. Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate adjusted HR (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association of obesity indices and their long-term changes with incident T2DM. Results: A total of 1,888 cases of incident T2DM were found (incidence: 12.35/1,000 person-years) during the mean follow-up of 10.14±3.64 years. Baseline WC (aHR =1.37, 95% CI: 1.31, 1.43), WHtR (aHR =1.38, 95% CI: 1.32, 1.44), BMI (aHR =1.27, 95% CI: 1.21, 1.32), WHtHR (aHR =1.34, 95% CI: 1.25, 1.43) exhibited statistically significant associations with increased risk of T2DM. Per SD increment of WC and weight changes were associated with a 15% and 13% higher risk of incident T2DM, respectively. Stratification analysis revealed that abdominal obesity indices presented stronger associations among males and those under 60 years, while general obesity markers among females and the elderly. Conclusions: Obesity, long-term WC and weight changes increase the risk of incident T2DM among rural adults of eastern China, with modification by sex and age.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".