Robust Optimal Sizing of a Stand-Alone Hybrid Renewable Energy System Using Machine Learning-Based Uncertainty Sets
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study introduces an adaptive robust approach for optimally sizing hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs) comprising solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and a diesel generator. It integrates vector auto-regressive models (VAR) and neural networks (NN) into dynamic uncertainty sets (DUSs) to address temporal auto-correlations and cross-correlations among uncertain parameters like energy demand and solar and wind energy supply. These DUSs are compared to static and independent dynamic uncertainty sets based on time series (TS) from the literature. An exact iterative algorithm is developed to solve the problem effectively. A case study of a northern Ontario community evaluates the proposed framework and the solution method using real test data. Simulation reveals a 10.7% increase in capital cost on average but a 36.2% decrease in operational cost, resulting in a 16.4% total cost reduction and an 8.1% improvement in system reliability compared to the nominal model employing point estimates. Furthermore, the proposed VAR- and NN-based DUSs significantly outperform classical static and TS-based dynamic sets, underscoring the necessity of considering cross-correlations in uncertainty quantification.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".