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Record W4407947595 · doi:10.1038/s41537-025-00582-5

Clinical prediction model for transition to psychosis in individuals meeting At Risk Mental State criteria

2025· article· en· W4407947595 on OpenAlexaff
Laura Bonnett, Alexandra Hunt, Allan Flores, Catrin Tudur Smith, Filippo Varese, Rory Byrne, Heather Law, Rebekah Carney, Sophie Parker, Alison R. Yung, Jai Shah, Marita Pruessner, Ashok Malla, Tim Ziermans, Sarah Durston, Wing Chung Chang, Anthony P. Morrison, David Shiers, Mark van der Gaag, William R. McFarlane, Patrick Welsh, Paul A. Tiffin, Anita Riecher‐Rössler, Erich Studerus, Frauke Schultze‐Lutter, Stephan Ruhrmann, Joachim Klosterkötter, Suk Kyoon An, Inti Qurashi, Nusrat Huasain, Simon Chu, G. Paul Amminger, Magdalena Kotlicka‐Antczak, Jean Addington, Silvia Rigucci, Swapna Verma, Chun Ting Chan, Masahiro Katsura, Kazunori Matsumoto, Tsutomu Takahashi, Pablo A. Gaspar, Rolando Castillo, Sebastián Corral, Rocío Mayol-Troncoso, Alejandro Maturana, Peter J. Uhlhaas, Nicolas Rüsch

Bibliographic record

VenueSchizophrenia · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicSchizophrenia research and treatment
Canadian institutionsUniversity of CalgaryHotchkiss Brain InstituteMcGill University
FundersNational Institute for Health and Care Research
KeywordsPsychosisPsychologyLogistic regressionClinical psychologySchizophrenia (object-oriented programming)Global Assessment of FunctioningScale (ratio)PsychiatryComputer scienceMachine learning

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

OpenAlex records an abstract for this work, but it could not be fetched just now.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.029
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.048
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.029
Threshold uncertainty score0.154

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0290.048
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0020.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0020.006
Bibliometrics0.0040.002
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0020.001
Open science0.0020.001
Research integrity0.0020.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0050.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.033
GPT teacher head0.377
Teacher spread0.344 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations4
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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