Widespread pH increase and geochemical trends in fifty boreal lakes: Evidence, prediction and plausible attribution to climate and permafrost thaw impacts across northeastern Alberta
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Study region This study focuses on 50 boreal lakes and catchments situated in northeastern Alberta, Canada between 55.68°N – 59.72°N and 110.02°W – 115.46°W. Study focus Evidence for trends in chemical composition of lakes, including pH increases are provided using Mann-Kendall statistics, geochemical modelling, δ 18 O, δ 2 H, and δ 13 C, which are compared to trend statistics for climate, water balance, and groundwater indicators. New hydrological insights for the region Groundwater contributions are generally found to be increasing with water yield and carbon inputs as sites advance along the thaw trajectory. The exception to this is shield lakes which continue to be surface water dominant. Statistical analyses suggest widespread trends, both significant and non-significant, in geochemical parameters across the lake network including pH increases in 46 of 50 lakes. In shale-dominated plateau areas, pH trends are adequately described by changes in HCO 3 - , attributed mainly to carbon input associated with permafrost thaw. For these lakes, prediction improves little if other variables are considered, whereas for post thaw areas, prediction of pH trends improves if water yield trends are also considered. In sub-regions with appreciable carbonate, pH trend prediction improves significantly if values of δ 13 C DIC and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) are also considered. We postulate that recent pH trends across the region may only be temporary and that lake acidification may yet occur once permafrost thaw and related carbon imports diminish.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".