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Record W4408034514 · doi:10.21037/jtd-2025-31

Development a predictive nomogram for spontaneous pleurodesis in patients with non-small cell lung cancer and malignant pleural effusion

2025· article· en· W4408034514 on OpenAlexaff
Sihan Tan, Hao Zeng, Qin Huang, Xin Pu, Weimin Li, Jason M. Ali, Rahul Nayak, Milind Bhagat, Yalun Li, Panwen Tian

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Thoracic Disease · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicPleural and Pulmonary Diseases
Canadian institutionsWestern University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMedicineMalignant pleural effusionNomogramPleurodesisLung cancerPleural effusionRadiologyLungOncologyInternal medicine

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Background: Indwelling pleural catheter (IPC) insertion is associated with fewer subsequent procedures and higher rates of spontaneous pleurodesis (SP) in patients with malignant pleural effusion (MPE). However, long-term pleural drains may cause psychological and physical distress. Additionally, only a portion of patients can benefit from IPC insertion and ultimately have them removed. The nomogram reflects the influence of different factors on outcome visually, enabling clinics to assess the optimal population. Thus, the objective of this study was to develop and validate a novel nomogram to predict successful SP in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with MPE treated with IPC. Methods: We reviewed data on the use of IPC insertion for MPE in patients with NSCLC and allocated them randomly to development (60%) and validation (40%) sets. A static and dynamic nomogram was developed based on multivariate logistic regression to evaluate SP occurrence in the development set. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Nelson-Aalen cumulative risk curves were used to validate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. Results: In total, 331 patients (development set: n=199; validation set: n=132) were selected for this study. Medical thoracoscopy, septated effusion, and effusion volume were the strongest predictors of SP. Other predictors included gender, systemic treatment, and serum neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. The prediction nomogram was demonstrated good predictive ability in the development and validation sets (area under the curve: 0.745 and 0.720, respectively). The DCA indicated that the model had a certain clinical application value. Nelson-Aalen cumulative risk curves showed that the more favorable group received successful SP than did the less favorable group (P<0.001). Conclusions: We developed an accurate and practicable nomogram for successfully predicting SP. These results may benefit clinicians in optimizing treatment decisions, improving the probability of SP, and relieving the long-term discomfort caused by IPC.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.047
Threshold uncertainty score0.490

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.008
GPT teacher head0.272
Teacher spread0.264 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations3
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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