Comparing Artificial Intelligence and Traditional Regression Models in Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Using A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: Accurately identifying individuals who are at high risk of lung cancer is critical to optimize lung cancer screening with low-dose CT (LDCT). We sought to compare the performance of traditional regression models and artificial intelligence (AI)-based models in predicting future lung cancer risk. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted with reporting according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature databases for studies reporting the performance of AI or traditional regression models for predicting lung cancer risk. Two researchers screened articles, and a third researcher resolved conflicts. Model characteristics and predictive performance metrics were extracted. The quality of studies was assessed using the Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. A meta-analysis assessed the discrimination performance of models, based on area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: One hundred forty studies met inclusion criteria and included 185 traditional and 64 AI-based models. Of these, 16 AI models and 65 traditional models have been externally validated. The pooled AUC of external validations of AI models was 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80-0.85), and the pooled AUC for traditional regression models was 0.73 (95% CI, 0.72-0.74). In a subgroup analysis, AI models that included LDCT had a pooled AUC of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.82-0.88). Overall risk of bias was high for both AI and traditional models. CONCLUSION: AI-based models, particularly those using imaging data, show promise for improving lung cancer risk prediction over traditional regression models. Future research should focus on prospective validation of AI models and direct comparisons with traditional methods in diverse populations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.050 | 0.106 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.020 | 0.057 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.011 | 0.010 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".