A convolutional deep reinforcement learning architecture for an emerging stock market analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the complex and dynamic stock market landscape, investors seek to optimize returns while minimizing risks associated with price volatility. Various innovative approaches have been proposed to achieve high profits by considering historical trends and social factors. Despite advancements, accurately predicting market dynamics remains a persistent challenge. This study introduces a novel deep reinforcement learning (DRL) architecture to forecast stock market returns effectively. Unlike traditional approaches requiring manual feature engineering, the proposed model leverages convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to directly process daily stock prices and financial indicators. The model addresses overfitting and data scarcity issues during training by replacing conventional Q-tables with convolutional layers. The optimization process minimizes the sum of squared errors, enhancing prediction accuracy. Experimental evaluations demonstrate the model's robustness, achieving a 67% improvement in directional accuracy over the buy-and-hold strategy across short-term and long-term horizons. These findings underscore the model’s adaptability and effectiveness in navigating complex market environments, offering a significant advancement in financial forecasting.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".