Negative trend in total solar irradiance over the satellite era
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Linear trends in total solar irradiance (TSI) between different reconstructions of the satellite era, defined as 1978 to 2023, disagree by up to 0.17 W/m 2 per decade. Furthermore, high-quality satellite radiometer observations of the most recent solar cycle, 24, systematically differ from estimates that rely on TSI proxies for reasons that have been unclear. Using a Bayesian Kalman filtering approach to estimate TSI from both satellite-based observations and proxies gives two complementary explanations: recent satellite-based observations of TSI contain unaccounted-for positive linear drifts, and regression-based reconstructions are affected by commonly used solar magnetic proxies becoming less sensitive to TSI variations at low values. After accounting for satellite instrument drifts and reduced sensitivity, direct and proxy observations come into agreement and together indicate a linear trend in overall TSI of −0.15 W/m 2 per decade with a 95% CI of −0.17 to −0.13 W/m 2 per decade between 1980 and 2023.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".