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Impacts of Extratropical Transition on Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes

2025· preprint· en· W4408320936 on OpenAlexaff
Kayla Wheeler, Benjamin A. Schenkel, Matthew C. Brown, Roger Edwards, Ty Dickinson

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicTropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
Canadian institutionsImpact
Fundersnot available
KeywordsTornadoExtratropical cycloneTropical cycloneClimatologyCyclone (programming language)MeteorologyEnvironmental scienceGeographyGeologyComputer science

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The impact of extratropical transition (ET) on tropical cyclone (TC) tornadoes is not fully understood with no prior tornado climatologies for ET cases. Hence, this study investigates how ET impacts tornadoes and convective-scale environments within TCs using multidecadal tornado and radiosonde data from North Atlantic TCs. This study divides ET into three phases: tropical (i.e., pre-ET), transition (i.e., during ET), and extratropical (i.e., post-ET). These results show that the largest portion of tornadoes occur before and during ET, with the greatest frequencies during ET. As TCs undergo and complete ET, tornadoes tend to shift geographically north and east, farther south or more strongly downshear right relative to the TC center, occur later in the day, and are more likely to be associated with greater damage. Evaluation of radiosondes showed that the downshear right quadrant of the TC is frequently the most favorable for tornado production, having the best combination of entrainment CAPE (ECAPE) and storm-relative helicity (SRH) values. Specifically, the downshear right quadrant shows slower decreases in ECAPE (associated with large-scale cooling/drying) and increased low-level shear/SRH through ET, relative to quadrants left of the deeptropospheric (i.e.., 850-200-hPa) vertical wind shear vector. These results have ramifications for the physical model and prediction of ET-related TC evolution, both in terms of their environment and subsequent hazard production Suggested Reviewers:

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.019
Threshold uncertainty score0.037

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.021
GPT teacher head0.270
Teacher spread0.249 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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