Reassessment of Three Spotted Turtle (Clemmys guttata) Populations Reveals Spatial Variation in Population Size and Survival
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Clemmys guttata (Spotted Turtle) is a widespread species of regional conservation concern throughout the eastern United States and Canada, relying upon mosaics of upland and wetland habitats. Spotted Turtles exhibit late maturity and low annual reproductive potential; as a result, many populations are vulnerable to decline and reduced connectivity due to elevated rates of anthropogenic disturbance and mortality. We assessed 3 Spotted Turtle populations that were initially studied between 1989 and 1995 on patchworks of private and public (watershed and state forest) land using mark–recapture methods and a combination of open- and closed-population models. During the initial studies, the 3 populations were estimated to support 98, 18, and 43 turtles, respectively. Our population models for the same sites during 2018 or 2019 provided estimates of 92.3, 25.8, and 36.6 turtles, respectively, suggesting limited evidence of growth or decline over more than 25 years at all 3 sites, though fluctuations were observed. We attribute the lack of significant change in population size at these sites to their landscape context: all 3 are situated within areas >600 ha with no public road access, allowing turtles to shift habitat in response to vegetation succession, hydrological shifts, or other changes and buffering them against roadkill or other anthropogenic threats. We also documented variation in population parameters across both space and time; for example, annual survival estimates varied from 0.924 to 0.986 at the sites, emphasizing the need for locally specific information and long-term studies to inform conservation decisions at both the site and species level.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".