Ensemble simulation of the MIS 12-MIS 11 glacial cycle using a fully coupled climate-ice sheet model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 12-MIS 11 glacial cycle (490-396 Ka) has been recognized as anomalous by researchers due to the longevity of the interglacial interval. MIS 12 sea level low stand is inferred to be similar to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), however, due to limited geomorphological data, major uncertainties remain with respect to where the ice was distributed and the relative size of the ice sheets. With the lowest increase in insolation from glacial to interglacial of the past 800 kyrs, MIS 11 was almost twice as long as the other interglacials of the past 500 kyrs. A prevailing hypothesis for the duration of MIS 11 proposes that the large MIS 12 ice sheets, when exposed to a weak insolation increase, gradually released meltwater and deglaciated throughout the interglacial period, contributing to its extended duration. This freshwater influx triggered a positive feedback, promoting the release of oceanic CO2 into the atmosphere, which amplified insolation-driven warming and further prolonged the interglacial period.Given the lack of terrestrial paleoclimate data, ice and climate modelling may offer a way to improve the understanding of this curious interval. Previous modeling work of this interval has been with either highly parameterized, low-resolution coupled ice-climate models, climate models with forced ice sheets, snapshot climate models with pre-industrial ice sheets, or ice sheet models with forced climate. Few models span the entire duration of the glacial cycle. For the first time, we transiently simulate the entire interval with the fully coupled ice sheet-climate LCIce model that resolves both atmospheric and ocean circulation. Parametric uncertainties are addressed by ensemble simulation. This presentation focuses on ensemble analysis of the ice sheets and climate of the glacial cycle as well as sensitivity testing of the two hypothesized drivers for length of MIS 11: meltwater flux during deglaciation and atmospheric CO2 concentration.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".