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Record W4408427939 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12624

The distribution of glacier surge behaviour in Svalbard and implications for understanding unstable ice flow

2025· preprint· en· W4408427939 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
William D. Harcourt, Danni M. Pearce, Wojciech Gajek, Harold Lovell, Andreas Kääb, Doug Benn, Adrian Luckman, Richard Hann, Jack Kohler, Erik Schytt Mannerfelt, Tazio Strozzi, Rebecca McCerery, Bethan J. Davies

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicCryospheric studies and observations
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsSurgeGlacierArcticGeologyArchipelagoClimatologyGlacier mass balanceGlacier terminusCirque glacierPhysical geographyOceanographySea iceIce streamCryosphereGeomorphologyGeography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Glacier surges are periods of significantly increased ice flow due to ice-dynamic feedbacks, in contrast to more conventional advances or other responses due to changes in mass balance. In the Arctic, a ring of surging glacier clusters can be found extending from Alaska-Yukon to Novaya Zemlya. The ‘Arctic ring’ encapsulates Svalbard, an archipelago with a long history of glaciological observations and consequently measurements of glacier surges. However, estimates of the number of surge-type glaciers across the archipelago range between 10% and 90% depending on the classification technique used. To better understand the causes, drivers and impacts of glacier surges in Svalbard, improved monitoring is required and new techniques developed to extend the observational record of active surge dynamics. In this contribution, we review the benefits and limitations of different approaches for monitoring and detecting glacier surges in Svalbard. We use this to compile a new database of surge-type glaciers in Svalbard, which also contains data on surge characteristics e.g. terminus change and velocity. We find that 36% of glaciers in Svalbard have displayed surge-type behaviour throughout our observational and landform record, rising to 51% when removing glaciers smaller than 1 km2. Of all the glaciers in Svalbard, only 9% have been directly observed to surge in Svalbard. Since the 2000s, satellite monitoring has enabled detection of most surges of glaciers with large catchments, and the launch of the Copernicus Sentinels in 2014 has further enhanced our monitoring capabilities. Current surge detection is based upon tracking the speed of glaciers over time, elevation changes, terminus advances particularly in historical data sets, and more recently automatically detecting surface changes related to a surge such as increased crevassing. Geophysical sensors are critical for observing subglacial conditions and further work is required to improve deployment strategies on heavily crevassed glaciers. Past surge behaviour can be inferred by employing a landsystems approach and using historical archives such as maps, photographs and field notes. Improvements in our ability to detect surges has started to reveal more complex surge dynamics that suggests the binary classification of a glacier as surge-type or not breaks down. This has implications for how we understand the mechanisms through which glaciers build up energy during quiescence which enables ice flow acceleration during a surge.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.062
Threshold uncertainty score0.124

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0030.002
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.059
GPT teacher head0.272
Teacher spread0.213 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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