The proportionality between tonne-years of temporary carbon storage and inertial climate variables 
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Human- and nature-driven disturbances threaten the longevity of land-based carbon removal. However, even carbon that is temporarily stored still reduces global temperatures while said carbon remains stored. This temporary carbon storage can be measured in tonne-years, a metric that measures the time-integrated amount of carbon storage. Previous studies have identified two key findings: 1) that tonne-years of temporary storage are proportional to degree-years of avoided warming, and 2) that degree-years of avoided warming are proportional to climate outcomes that affect inertial components of the climate system, such as thermosteric sea level rise, ocean warming, and permafrost carbon loss. As a result, tonne-years of temporary carbon storage should also be proportional to climate outcomes influencing these inertial climate variables. Using the UVic Earth System Climate Model (UVic-ESCM), we simulate each Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario, along with nine variations of each representing nine removal pathways with varying magnitudes and durations of carbon removal. Our results demonstrate that tonne-years of carbon storage are proportional to climate outcomes affecting inertial components of the climate system. This proportionality holds across a wide range of peak temperatures and temporary removal pathways, emphasizing that the impact of temporary carbon storage is path independent for some slow-responding climate variables.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".