Internal volcano-magmatic structure of Öræfajökull volcano, Iceland
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Öræfajökull, one of Iceland’s most dangerous volcanoes which last erupted in 1727 and 1362 Common Era, began to show signs of significant unrest between 2017 and 2019. This activity led to a change in the aviation color code, the establishment of evacuation routes, and increased monitoring. The unrest was characterized by pronounced seismic activity, ground swelling, and heightened geothermal phenomena, including melting of ice and increased discharge of geothermal waters. This rare event at Öræfajökull has provided an invaluable and novel opportunity to better understand the internal structure of the volcano and processes responsible for the onset of the unrest. Here, we utilize both seismic tomography and geodetic modelling to locate important volcanic-magmatic features beneath Öræfajökull. Our conceptual model posits three distinct structural zones within the volcano: a geothermally active system at shallow depths, the start of a magma domain/melt zone between ~2 and 6 kilometers depth below-sea-level, and a zone of higher-velocity intrusive rocks below ~6 kilometers below-sea-level. This study establishes a critical baseline for future periods of unrest at Öræfajökull, highlighting the potential for intermittent increased activity over decades in complex, dormant volcanoes before a significant eruption ensues.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".