Russia’s climate policy in an era of pandemic and war: weathering disruption
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Despite the crises of the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government’s largely interest-based approach to climate change continues to be shaped by short-term thinking about economic advantage and great-power status. Policymaking is channeled through a narrow decision-making selectorate in Russia’s authoritarian system. A potential window of opportunity for more ambitious climate policy at the start of the pandemic failed to produce a critical juncture due to its short-term nature and economic interests of institutionally empowered actors. The war has exaggerated unfavorable conditions for any serious government effort to address climate change in three ways: 1) intensifying elite interest in fossil fuel extraction; 2) consolidating an ideological view of great-power status opposed to the current international order; and 3) prompting further institutional narrowing of voices contributing to policy. Yet surprisingly, the Russian government continues to incrementally develop its climate policy, at least at a rhetorical level.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".