A randomized study of 2 risk assessment models for individualized breast cancer risk estimation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Estimating breast cancer risk involves quantifying genetic and non-genetic factors. This supports health interventions and risk communication to ensure adherence to screening recommendations. This study evaluated the change in risk estimation when incorporating breast density and polygenic risk score (PRS) into the baseline cancer risk assessment and compared the efficacy of 2 risk-assessment delivery models. METHODS: This 2-step study included 663 healthy women with a family history of breast cancer in which no pathogenic variants were identified. First, breast density and PRS were added to the baseline risk assessment for all participants. A randomized intervention study compared 2 delivery models (in-person vs pre-recorded video) for risk assessment in women at moderate or average risk. All tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: Breast density and PRS reclassified the risk group into 33% of the participants, with only 5% reclassified as high-risk. After disclosure of their estimated multifactorial risk, 65% of women aligned their risk perception with their estimated risk, compared to 47% at baseline (P < .05). No statistically significant differences were found in the primary endpoint cancer worry, mean = 10.2 (SD = 3.1) vs 10.1 (2.7), between delivery models. In-person delivery had slightly better psychological outcomes (excluding the primary outcome) and higher satisfaction, though few participants in the video group sought in-person clarification. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating breast density and PRS into risk assessments led to substantial reclassification, with 1 in 5 women facing de-escalated surveillance. Personalized assessments improve objective perceptions alignment. A model using a pre-recorded video-based model matches in-person delivery for moderate and average-risk women and is scalable for population-level implementation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.014 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".