A super-Chandrasekhar mass type Ia supernova progenitor at 49 pc set to detonate in 23 Gyr
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Double white dwarf binaries are a leading explanation of the origin of type Ia supernovae, but no system exceeding the Chandrasekhar mass limit (1.4 M ⊙ ) has been found that will explode anywhere close to a Hubble time. Here we present the super-Chandrasekhar mass double white dwarf WDJ181058.67+311940.94 whose merger time (22.6 ± 1.0 Gyr) is of the same order as a Hubble time. The mass of the binary is large, combining to 1.555 ± 0.044 M ⊙ , while being located only 49 pc away. We predict that the binary will explode dynamically by means of a double detonation that will destroy both stars just before they merge, appearing as a subluminous type Ia supernova with a peak apparent magnitude of about m V = −16 (200,000 times brighter than Jupiter). The observationally derived birth rate of super-Chandrasekhar mass double white dwarfs is now at least 6.0 × 10 −4 yr −1 and the observed rate of type Ia supernovae in the Milky Way from such systems is approximately 4.4 × 10 −5 yr −1 , whereas the predicted type Ia supernova rate in the Milky Way from all progenitor channels is about sixty times larger. Hence, WDJ181058.67+311940.94 mitigates the observed deficit of massive double white dwarfs witnessed in volume-complete populations, but further evidence is required to determine the majority progenitors of type Ia supernovae.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".