A super-Chandrasekhar mass type Ia supernova progenitor at 49 pc set to detonate in 23 Gyr
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Double white dwarf binaries are a leading explanation of the origin of type Ia supernovae, but no system exceeding the Chandrasekhar mass limit (1.4 M ⊙) has been found that will explode anywhere close to a Hubble time. Here we present the super-Chandrasekhar mass double white dwarf WDJ181058.67+311940.94 whose merger time (22.6 ± 1.0 Gyr) is of the same order as a Hubble time. The mass of the binary is large, combining to 1.555 ± 0.044 M ⊙, while being located only 49 pc away. We predict that the binary will explode dynamically by means of a double detonation that will destroy both stars just before they merge, appearing as a subluminous type Ia supernova with a peak apparent magnitude of about m V = −16 (200,000 times brighter than Jupiter). The observationally derived birth rate of super-Chandrasekhar mass double white dwarfs is now at least 6.0 × 10−4 yr−1 and the observed rate of type Ia supernovae in the Milky Way from such systems is approximately 4.4 × 10−5 yr−1, whereas the predicted type Ia supernova rate in the Milky Way from all progenitor channels is about sixty times larger. Hence, WDJ181058.67+311940.94 mitigates the observed deficit of massive double white dwarfs witnessed in volume-complete populations, but further evidence is required to determine the majority progenitors of type Ia supernovae.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".