Habitat and Migration Dynamics of North American Tree Species Under Climate Change
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Aim We model and map the climatically suitable habitats and migration potential of 326 tree species by combining forest inventories of the United States, Canada and to a lesser extent, Mexico, with the goal of providing a continental perspective of species ranges and migration potential to facilitate better forest stewardship under a changing climate. Location United States, Canada, and Mexico. Major Taxa Studied Tree species. Methods We use a multi‐model ensemble technique to assess climatic habitat suitability under current and future climates, and a migration model to compute colonisation likelihoods to simulate end of century tree species migration. We combine and synthesise these outputs to provide various products relevant to range‐wide assessment of tree species. Results For 326 tree species, we provide maps of: current habitat suitability, future habitat suitability under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, and combined habitat suitability and colonisation likelihoods for the end of the current century. In addition, we provide synthesis outputs of (a) climate and topographic statistical range assessments, (b) maps of potential differences in species richness from current to future climates, (c) assessment of model performance, (d) climate‐topographic variable‐importance groupings and (e) climatic disequilibrium trends across genera. A continent‐wide assessment of both individual and combined species responses showed evidence of climatic disequilibrium for species with smaller ranges, a projected potential reduction in species richness in the middle and lower mid‐continental regions, and an increase across the southeastern, northeastern, and northwestern regions of the continent. Also, we found habitat suitability of most eastern species were mainly driven by moisture, while western species showed strong associations with heat and moisture. Main Conclusions Our study provides, for the first time, a baseline for understanding the overall continental dynamics of shifting climatic habitats and migration potential of tree species across their entire range, facilitating improved management of North American forested ecosystems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".