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Record W4409453424 · doi:10.1101/2025.04.09.647889

The Impact of Habitat Impermanence on Metapopulation Viability and Size

2025· preprint· en· W4409453424 on OpenAlexaff
Emma Walker, Austin Phillips, Benjamin Gilbert

Bibliographic record

VenuebioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 2025
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicEcology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Toronto
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMetapopulationImpermanenceHabitatGeographyEcologyEconomic geographyBiologyDemographyArchaeologySociologyBiological dispersal

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Habitat is often impermanent causing the amount and spatial distribution of habitat patches available to species to vary through time. Theory calls for metrics that fully account for the impact of habitat impermanence on metapopulations, yet all use averages that homogenize spatiotemporal impacts of habitat impermanence in some manner. We develop a novel modelling approach using a deterministic variation of the widely used spatially realistic Levins model paired with a continuous time Markov chain to capture the stochastic impacts of habitat impermanence on finite metapopulations. From this model we derive analytic expectations of metapopulation viability and size by weighting landscape capacities and equilibrium occupancies by the quasi-equilibrium distribution of habitat configurations exhibited by landscapes characterized by a simplest form of habitat impermanence (i.e. random and independent habitat patch loss and gain at constant rates). These provide expectations of metapopulation viability and size in absence of transient metapopulation dynamics. We then show how dispersal and colonization/extinction rates, relative to rates of habitat change, separately impact metapopulation viability and size. Using simulations of our model, we show the measures we propose invariably improve estimation of metapopulation viability and size from earlier estimates, but ultimately overestimate both when species less able to keep pace with rates of change from habitat impermanence in the landscapes they occupy. Our research identifies the importance of fully accounting for spatial habitat configurations through time, and highlights the importance of transient dynamics as rates of habitat impermanence increase.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.006
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.003
Threshold uncertainty score0.007

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.006
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.009
GPT teacher head0.242
Teacher spread0.233 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venuebioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)→Same topicEcology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies→French-language works237,207→