In Search of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroids in the Taurid Resonant Swarm
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The Taurid Complex is a large interplanetary system that contains comet 2P/Encke, several meteoroid streams, and possibly a number of near-Earth asteroids. The size and nature of the system have led to the speculation that it was formed through a large-scale cometary breakup. Numerical investigations have suggested that planetary dynamics can create a resonant region with a large number of objects concentrated in a small segment of the orbit, known as the Taurid swarm, which approaches the Earth in certain years and provides favorable conditions for studying the Taurid Complex. Recent meteor observations confirmed the existence of the swarm for millimeter- to meter-sized objects. Here we present a dedicated telescopic search for potentially hazardous asteroids and other macroscopic objects in the Taurid swarm using the Zwicky Transient Facility survey. We determine from our nondetection that there are no more than 9–14 H ≤ 24 (equivalent to a diameter of D ≳ 100 m) objects in the swarm, suggesting that the Encke–Taurid progenitor was ∼10 km in size. A progenitor of such a size is compatible with the prediction of state-of-the-art solar system dynamical models, which expects ∼0.1 D > 10 km objects on Encke-like orbits at any given time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".