Effect of hydrocortisone on mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: To determine whether hydrocortisone improves mortality in severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). METHODS: In an international adaptive randomized controlled platform trial testing multiple interventions, adults admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with severe CAP were randomized to a 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg every 6 h) or control (no corticosteroid). The primary end point was 90-day all-cause mortality, analyzed iteratively by a Bayesian hierarchical model estimating distinct treatment effects for patients presenting with influenza (Y/N) and shock (Y/N). RESULTS: Fixed 7-day course hydrocortisone enrollment was stopped for futility (< 5% probability of > 20% relative improvement). Of 658 patients enrolled, 536 were randomized to hydrocortisone and 122 to control. Vital status at day 90 was missing for 15 patients. Day 90 mortality was 15% (78/521) and 9.8% (12/122) for the hydrocortisone and control groups. The adjusted odds ratio ranged from 1.52 to 1.63 (with all 95% CrI crossing 1), while the probability of > 20% relative reduction of day 90 mortality ranged from 7.1 to 3.3% across influenza and shock strata. Results were consistent in sensitivity and pre-specified secondary outcomes. In exploratory analyses, the duration of shock appeared lower in the hydrocortisone group compared with control (median (IQR) of 2 (2-5) days compared to control 3 (2-6.75) days, p value = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with severe CAP, treatment with a 7-day course of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, appears unlikely to yield a large reduction in mortality. Smaller benefits and possible harm are not excluded. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT02735707 (registration date: November 4th, 2016).
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it