Financial market reactions to U.S. tariff announcements: Evidence from trade-surplus and trade-deficit countries
Bibliographic record
Abstract
• Analyzes financial market reactions to the 2025 U.S. tariff announcement. • Uses event study to compare trade-surplus and trade-deficit country responses. • Trade-deficit nations showed muted or mixed equity market reactions. • Trade-surplus nations saw positive market responses, showing trade shifts. • Findings highlight the role of policy uncertainty in global financial markets. This study examines the financial market response to the U.S. tariff announcement on February 1, 2025, which imposed a 25 % tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada (except energy products at 10 %) and a 10 % tariff on China. The results reveal asymmetric market reactions: trade-deficit countries, which faced direct tariff impositions, exhibited muted and mixed responses, suggesting that investors had already priced in potential trade frictions or expected policy reversals. In contrast, trade-surplus countries experienced significant positive CAARs, reflecting investor optimism about potential trade reallocation benefits.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".