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Assessing the Sustainability of Miscanthus and Willow as Global Bioenergy Crops: Current and Future Climate Conditions (Part 2)

2025· preprint· en· W4410082355 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Mohamed Abdalla, Astley Hastings, Grant L. Campbell, Jon McCalmont, A. Shepherd, Pete Smith

Bibliographic record

VenuePreprints.org · 2025
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldAgricultural and Biological Sciences
TopicBioenergy crop production and management
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersUK Research and Innovation
KeywordsMiscanthusWillowBioenergySustainabilityCurrent (fluid)Energy cropEnvironmental scienceBiofuelAgroforestryClimate changeAgronomyEngineeringEcologyBiologyWaste management

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Land-based bioenergy systems are increasingly promoted for their potential to support climate mitigation and energy security. Building up on previous productivity and efficiency analyses [1], this study applies the MiscanFor and SalixFor models to evaluate land use energy intensity (LUEI) for Miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus) and willow (Salix spp.) feedstock fuel under baseline (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios (B1 and A1FI, up to 2060). In addition, the study assesses the impact of biomass transport on energy use efficiency (EUE) and quantifies soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration of Miscanthus. Under current conditions, Miscanthus exhibits a higher global mean LUEI (321 ± 179 GJ/ha) compared to willow (164 ± 115.6 GJ/ha), with energy yield hotspots located in tropical and subtropical regions such as South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia due to climate suitability. In contrast, colder regions in Europe and Canada show limited energy potential. By 2060, LUEI is projected to decline by 9–15% for Miscanthus and 8–13% for willow, with moderate warming (B1) improving energy return in temperate zones and extreme warming (A1FI) reducing energy in the tropics. Overall, Miscanthus delivers higher energy returns, while willow offers broader temperature adaptability provided sufficient water is available. At baseline, global EUE for Miscanthus declines from 15.73 ± 7.1 to 12.37 ± 5.2 as transport distance increases from 50 km to 500 km, a 21% reduction, with similar trends observed under future climate scenarios. Mean global annual SOC sequestration is estimated at 1.20 ± 1.46 t C/ha, with tropical hotspots reaching up to 4.57 t C/ha. In contrast, some cooler temperate and boreal regions show net SOC losses down to –7.93 t C/ha. Projected gains decline to 0.62 ± 1.11 t C/ha (B1) and 0.49 ± 1.13 t C/ha (A1FI), reflecting strong climate sensitivity and regional variability. These findings underscore the critical need for region-specific biomass supply chains that strategically balance logistical and economic trade-offs with environmental sustainability, ensuring resilient, climate-smart bioenergy systems that maximize carbon gains and net energy returns.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.032
Threshold uncertainty score0.063

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.061
GPT teacher head0.357
Teacher spread0.296 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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