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Record W4410260902 · doi:10.1029/2024av001636

Earth's Energy Imbalance More Than Doubled in Recent Decades

2025· article· en· W4410260902 on OpenAlex
Thorsten Mauritsen, Yoko Tsushima, Benoît Meyssignac, Norman G. Loeb, Maria Z. Hakuba, Peter Pilewskie, Jason N. S. Cole, Kentaroh Suzuki, Thomas P. Ackerman, Richard P. Allan, Timothy Andrews, Frida A.‐M. Bender, Jonah Bloch‐Johnson, Alejandro Bodas‐Salcedo, Anca Brookshaw, Paulo Ceppi, Nicolas Clerbaux, A. E. Dessler, Aaron Donohoe, Jean‐Louis Dufresne, Veronika Eyring, Kirsten L. Findell, Andrew Gettelman, Jake J. Gristey, Ed Hawkins, Patrick Heimbach, Helene T. Hewitt, Nadir Jeevanjee, Colin Jones, Sarah M. Kang, Seiji Kato, Jennifer E. Kay, Stephen A. Klein, Reto Knutti, Ryan J. Kramer, June‐Yi Lee, Daniel T. McCoy, Brian Medeiros, Linda Megner, Angshuman Modak, Tomoo Ogura, Matthew D. Palmer, David Paynter, Johannes Quaas, V. Ramanathan, Mark A. Ringer, Karina von Schuckmann, Steven C. Sherwood, Björn Stevens, Ivy Tan, George Tselioudis, Rowan Sutton, Aiko Voigt, Masahiro Watanabe, Mark J. Webb, Martin Wild, Mark D. Zelinka

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueAGU Advances · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnergy
TopicGlobal Energy and Sustainability Research
Canadian institutionsMcGill UniversityEnvironment and Climate Change Canada
FundersHORIZON EUROPE European Research CouncilPacific Northwest National LaboratoryDepartment for Science, Innovation and TechnologyLawrence Livermore National LaboratoryDevelopment of Advanced Measurement and Analysis SystemsJapan Aerospace Exploration AgencyNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationVetenskapsrådetSwedish National Space AgencyJet Propulsion LaboratoryMinistry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and TechnologyCentre National d’Etudes SpatialesOffice of Legacy ManagementMet OfficeBoston CollegeSwedish e-Science Research CentreNational Aeronautics and Space AdministrationEuropean Space AgencyCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
KeywordsEarth (classical element)AstrobiologyEnergy (signal processing)Earth scienceEnvironmental scienceNatural resource economicsGeologyEconomicsPhysicsAstronomy

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Global warming results from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions which upset the delicate balance between the incoming sunlight, and the reflected and emitted radiation from Earth. The imbalance leads to energy accumulation in the atmosphere, oceans and land, and melting of the cryosphere, resulting in increasing temperatures, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather around the globe. Despite the fundamental role of the energy imbalance in regulating the climate system, as known to humanity for more than two centuries, our capacity to observe it is rapidly deteriorating as satellites are being decommissioned.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.837
Threshold uncertainty score0.997

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.009
GPT teacher head0.305
Teacher spread0.296 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it