Cardiovascular Risk Assessment via Sleep Patterns and ECG-Based Biological Age Estimation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Understanding the intricate relationship between sleep quality and cardiovascular outcomes opens new avenues for risk stratification in cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). This study aims to evaluate the prognostic potential of biological age estimates derived from sleep-stage analysis and nocturnal heart rhythm patterns. Methods: Using polysomnographic data from 1149 patients, we extract ECG signals and use an unsupervised clustering approach to generate time-series clusters that capture dynamic fluctuations in heart rhythms. A subsequent deep learning model then estimated individual biological ages from these clusters, revealing associations between the predicted age, sleep patterns, and cardiac function. Results: In an independent test set of 736 patients, the predicted biological age was significantly associated with increased mortality (Hazard Ratio [HR] 2.27, p < 0.05) and elevated CVD risk (HR 3.56, p < 0.001), while models based solely on nocturnal heart rhythms yielded HRs of 2.29 (p < 0.05) for all-cause mortality and 3.13 (p < 0.01) for CVD risk. Conclusions: These findings demonstrate that integrating sleep stage and ECG offers a robust biomarker for cardiovascular risk stratification, paving the way for earlier interventions and more personalized healthcare strategies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".