Geoeffectiveness of X and M Class Solar Flares (SF) and Associated Halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We studied the geoeffectiveness, the angular width, and the association with solar flares of classes X and M for a set of 262 halo-type coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during solar cycles 23 and 24, covering the period from 1996 to 2019 inclusive. We compiled the minimum Dst values that occurred within 1 to 5 days after the CME onset. We compared the distributions of these Dst values for the following subsets of halo-type CMEs: narrow CMEs (angular width < 60°), medium CMEs (angular width between 60° and 120°), and wide CMEs (angular width > 120°). A halo-type CME is defined as geoeffective if followed by a Dst value lower than -50 nT; moderately geoeffective if the Dst is between -50 nT and -100 nT; strongly geoeffective with Dst values between -100 nT and -200 nT; and severely geoeffective if followed by a Dst value lower than -200 nT (this is already defined in the method section). The analysis of the 262 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) reveals that 14.1% are narrow CMEs, with 11.1% associated with M-class flares and 3% with X-class flares. Of the narrow CMEs, 5.3% were geoeffective. Medium-width CMEs account for 22.9%, also mostly linked to M-class (13.7%) and X-class (9.2%) flares, with 8% geoeffectiveness. Wide CMEs dominate with 63%, with 42.4% originating from M-class flares and 20.6% from X-class flares. Among the wide CMEs, 29.8% were geoeffective. Overall, 43.1% of the CMEs were geoeffective, with a greater contribution from M-class flares. During cycle 23, 48% of M-class flares accompanied by halo CMEs were geoeffective, compared to 62.7% for X-class flares. In cycle 24, the geoeffectiveness of M-class and X-class flares accompanied by halo CMEs was 26.3% and 23.5%, respectively.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".