Dynamic Modeling and Quantum-Enhanced Forecasting of Multi-Seasonal Energy Prices in Simulated Microgrid Environments
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The study address the challenge of forecasting per unit energy prices in a microgrid environment consisting of solar and hydro power resources under multi-seasonal variations.Traditional deep learning techniques such as LSTM,GRU and ESN often struggle with non-linear dependencies and volatility in energy market. To overcome these we propose a hybrid framework incorporating Adiabatic Quantum Computing (AQC) for electricity price forecasting. The proposed AQC model encodes-32 system and market related variables into quantum states and applies adiabatic evolution to derive optimized price prediction. Simulation results using real microgrid data set-up based on HIL shows that AQC reduces forecasting error by 17.03% compared to LSTM, 14.29% to GRU and 13.88% to ESN over 24-hrs and 48-hrs horizons. The enhanced accuracy and robustness of the quantum assisted model demonstrates its potential for next generation energy market forecasting and decisions making tool.The entire framework is tested using a synthetic microgrid dataset designed to emulate real-world seasonal and operational dynamics. While this enables controlled validation of the models, the generalizability of the results to real world deployment requires further empirical evaluations on physical microgrid data set.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".