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Record W4410513363 · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1004590

Alcohol intake and pancreatic cancer risk: An analysis from 30 prospective studies across Asia, Australia, Europe, and North America

2025· article· en· W4410513363 on OpenAlexaff
Sabine Naudin, Molin Wang, Niki Dimou, Elmira Ebrahimi, Jeanine M. Genkinger, Hans‐Olov Adami, Demetrius Albanes, A. Babić, Matt J. Barnett, David Bogumil, Hui Cai, Chu Chen, A. Heather Eliassen, Jo L. Freudenheim, Gretchen L. Gierach, Edward L. Giovannucci, Marc J. Gunter, Niclas Håkansson, Mayo Hirabayashi, Tao Hou, Brian Z. Huang, Wen‐Yi Huang, Harindra Jayasekara, Michael E. Jones, Verena Katzke, Woon‐Puay Koh, James V. Lacey, Ylva Trolle Lagerros, Susanna C. Larsson, Linda M. Liao, Kenneth Lo, Erikka Loftfield, Robert J. MacInnis, Satu Männistö, Marjorie L. McCullough, Anthony B. Miller, Roger L. Milne, Steven C. Moore, Lorelei A. Mucci, Marian L Neuhouser, Alpa V Patel, Elizabeth A. Platz, Anna E. Prizment, Kim Robien, Thomas E. Rohan, Carlotta Sacerdote, Sven Sandin, Norie Sawada, Minouk J. Schoemaker, Xiao Shu, Rashmi Sinha, Linda Snetselaar, Meir J. Stampfer, Rachael Z. Stolzenberg‐Solomon, Cynthia A. Thomson, Anne Tjønneland, Caroline Y. Um, Piet A. van den Brandt, Kala Visvanathan, Sophia Wang, Renwei Wang, Elisabete Weiderpass, Stephanie J. Weinstein, Emily White, Walter C. Willett, Alicja Wolk, Brian M. Wolpin, Shiaw-Shyuan Yaun, Chen Yuan, Jian‐Min Yuan, Wei Zheng, Paul Brennan, Stephanie A. Smith‐Warner, Pietro Ferrari

Bibliographic record

VenuePLoS Medicine · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicPancreatic and Hepatic Oncology Research
Canadian institutionsPublic Health OntarioUniversity of Toronto
FundersNational Heart, Lung, and Blood InstituteNational Institute on Alcohol Abuse and AlcoholismNational Institute on AgingNational Cancer InstituteNational Institutes of HealthWorld Health Organization
KeywordsMedicinePancreatic cancerHazard ratioProspective cohort studyBody mass indexCancerPopulationInternal medicineDemographyProportional hazards modelConfidence intervalEnvironmental health

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

BACKGROUND: Alcohol is a known carcinogen, yet the evidence for an association with pancreatic cancer risk is considered as limited or inconclusive by international expert panels. We examined the association between alcohol intake and pancreatic cancer risk in a large consortium of prospective studies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Population-based individual-level data was pooled from 30 cohorts across four continents, including Asia, Australia, Europe, and North America. A total of 2,494,432 participants without cancer at baseline (62% women, 84% European ancestries, 70% alcohol drinkers [alcohol intake ≥ 0.1 g/day], 47% never smokers) were recruited between 1980 and 2013 at the median age of 57 years and 10,067 incident pancreatic cancer cases were recorded. In age- and sex-stratified Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for smoking history, diabetes status, body mass index, height, education, race and ethnicity, and physical activity, pancreatic cancer hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for categories of alcohol intake and in continuous for a 10 g/day increase. Potential heterogeneity by sex, smoking status, geographic regions, and type of alcoholic beverage was investigated. Alcohol intake was positively associated with pancreatic cancer risk, with HR30-to-<60 g/day and HR≥60 g/day equal to 1.12 (95% CI [1.03,1.21]) and 1.32 (95% CI [1.18,1.47]), respectively, compared to intake of 0.1 to <5 g/day. A 10 g/day increment of alcohol intake was associated with a 3% increased pancreatic cancer risk overall (HR: 1.03; 95% CI [1.02,1.04]; pvalue < 0.001) and among never smokers (HR: 1.03; 95% CI [1.01,1.06]; pvalue = 0.006), with no evidence of heterogeneity by sex (pheterogeneity = 0.274) or smoking status (pheterogeneity = 0.624). Associations were consistent in Europe-Australia (HR10 g/day = 1.03, 95% CI [1.00,1.05]; pvalue = 0.042) and North America (HR10 g/day = 1.03, 95% CI [1.02,1.05]; pvalue < 0.001), while no association was observed in cohorts from Asia (HR10 g/day = 1.00, 95% CI [0.96,1.03]; pvalue = 0.800; pheterogeneity = 0.003). Positive associations with pancreatic cancer risk were found for alcohol intake from beer (HR10 g/day = 1.02, 95% CI [1.00,1.04]; pvalue = 0.015) and spirits/liquor (HR10 g/day = 1.04, 95% CI [1.03,1.06]; pvalue < 0.001), but not wine (HR10 g/day = 1.00, 95% CI [0.98,1.03]; pvalue = 0.827). The differential associations across geographic regions and types of alcoholic beverages might reflect differences in drinking habits and deserve more investigations. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this large-scale pooled analysis support a modest positive association between alcohol intake and pancreatic cancer risk, irrespective of sex and smoking status. Associations were particularly evident for baseline alcohol intake of at least 15 g/day in women and 30 g/day in men.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.009
Threshold uncertainty score0.997

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0020.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.080
GPT teacher head0.421
Teacher spread0.341 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations25
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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