A rapid accurate approach to inferring pedigrees in endogamous populations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate reconstruction of pedigrees from genetic data remains a challenging problem. Many relationship categories (e.g. half-sibships vs avuncular) can be difficult to distinguish without external information. Pedigree inference algorithms are often trained on European-descent families in urban locations. Thus, existing methods tend to perform poorly in endogamous populations for which there may be reticulations within the pedigrees and elevated haplotype sharing. We present a simple, rapid algorithm which initially uses only high-confidence first-degree relationships to seed a machine learning step based on summary statistics of identity-by-descent sharing. One of these statistics, our "haplotype score," is novel and can be used to: (1) distinguish half-sibling pairs from avuncular or grandparent-grandchildren pairs; and (2) assign individuals to ancestor vs descendant generation. We test our approach in a sample of 700 individuals from northern Namibia, sampled from an endogamous population called the Himba. Due to a culture of concurrent relationships in the Himba, there is a high proportion of half-sibships. We accurately identify first through fourth-degree relationships and distinguish between various second-degree relationships: half-sibships, avuncular pairs, and grandparent-grandchildren. We further validate our approach in a second African-descent dataset, the Barbados Asthma Genetics Study, and a European-descent founder population from Quebec. Accurate reconstruction of relatives facilitates estimation of allele frequencies, tracing allele trajectories, improved phasing, heritability and other population genomic questions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".