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Record W4410571631 · doi:10.1111/sifp.70014

Undesired Births, Contraception, and Abortion Before and After the Cairo Consensus: Trends in Conditional Undesired Birth Rates and the Impact of Contraception and Abortion

2025· article· en· W4410571631 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueStudies in Family Planning · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicGlobal Maternal and Child Health
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersChildren's Investment Fund FoundationGlobal Affairs CanadaBill and Melinda Gates Foundation
KeywordsAbortionDemographyMedicinePopulationBirth rateFamily planningTotal fertility rateInduced AbortionsFertilityPregnancyResearch methodologyEnvironmental healthBiology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The Programme of Action adopted after the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), and later the Beijing Declaration, affirmed commitments to the human right to decide on the number and spacing of one's children and have the information and means to do so. In this study, we estimate trends related to this component of reproductive agency-undesired births per thousand women who want to avoid pregnancy, the conditional undesired birth rate-with annual rates for five-year periods from 1975 to 2024. Worldwide, 36 million undesired births occurred annually in 2020-2024 compared to 45 million annually in 1990-1994, corresponding to a decrease in rate from 61 to 32. Had it not been for increases in contraceptive use since 1990-1994, the global average rate in 2020-2024 would have been 36 percent higher than it actually was. Had it not been for increasing proportions of pregnancies aborted, the rate would have been 58 percent higher. Comparing regional averages, excepting Sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania, the pace of decline in conditional undesired birth rates slowed by the 2000s; hence, the global average rate decreased by 22 percent in the latter half of the post-ICPD period after declining by 31 percent and 33 percent during the 15-year periods immediately before and after ICPD.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.015
Threshold uncertainty score0.353

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.029
GPT teacher head0.373
Teacher spread0.344 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it