Labor market institutions, productivity, and the business cycle: An application to Italy
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper studies the effect of labor market institutions on the cyclicality of labor productivity and aggregate fluctuations in Italy when two wage bargaining protocols (efficient Nash and right-to-manage) interact with three types of hiring costs. It uses a New Keynesian model with labor market frictions and labor effort estimated with Bayesian techniques using Italian quarterly data from 1996Q1 to 2018Q4. We find that technology shocks mainly explain labor productivity fluctuations. We focus on labor market deregulation by reducing real wage rigidity, hiring costs, and workers’ bargaining power. We show that, when labor effort varies, reforms trigger procyclical productivity under efficient bargaining, and countercyclical productivity under right-to-manage bargaining. Reforms have different effects on the volatility of labor market variables. We carry out several sensitivity analyses which confirm our results.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it