Priority Health Conditions and Global Life Expectancy Disparities
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Importance: Life expectancy is a composite health measure reflecting acute and life-course exposures. Identifying conditions behind disparities in life expectancy can guide policy, planning, and financing to battle the most urgent health problems. Objective: To examine the contribution of 33 causes of death to life expectancy disparities, highlighting 2 sets of priority conditions-8 infectious and maternal and child health conditions (I-8) and 7 noncommunicable diseases and injuries (NCD-7). Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study examined life expectancy disparities in 7 global regions and 165 countries from 2000 to 2021. Western Europe and Canada (hereafter referred to as the North Atlantic) in 2019 were used as a benchmark for life expectancy achievable with advanced health care and living standards. Life expectancy gaps in locations with life expectancy lower than the benchmark were decomposed by cause of death using the Pollard decomposition on the Global Health Estimates from the World Health Organization. Data were analyzed from February to March 2025. Exposure: Geographic location (countries and regions). Main Outcome and Measure: Life expectancy at birth. Results: In the median country in 2019, the I-8 and NCD-7 together accounted for 80% (IQR, 71%-88%) of the life expectancy gap compared with the North Atlantic. Outside sub-Saharan Africa, the NCD-7 accounted for the largest share of the gap; for example, more than the total life expectancy gap in China, or 5.5 (95% uncertainty bounds [UB], 5.0-6.0) years of a 4.3-year life expectancy gap; and 6.4 (95% UB, 5.9-6.8) years of a 11.5-year gap in India. However, reduced mortality from the I-8 contributed to enormous improvements in sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for 21.4 (95% UB, 20.6-22.2) years of a 31-year gap in 2000 and 11.4 (95% UB, 10.9-11.8) years of a 22-year gap in 2019. India transitioned from having most of the gap accounted for by the I-8 in 2000, or 11.9 (95% UB, 11.0-13.0) years of a 19.6-year life expectancy gap, to having a larger share accounted for by the NCD-7 in 2019. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study suggests that a limited number of causes account for most life expectancy disparities. Together with current information on risk factors, interventions, and morbidity not yet reflected in life expectancy, the varying contributions of these causes to gaps in life expectancy can help focus health policy and guide interventions to reduce risk factors and treat conditions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".