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TRACKING THROMBOEMBOLIC EVENTS AND ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID SYNDROME FROM ONSET OF SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS: A POPULATION-BASED STUDY

2025· article· en· W4410715641 on OpenAlexvenueno aff
Sigrid Reppe Moe, Hilde Haukeland, Torhild Garen, Antonela Botea, Anniken Orre, Heidi Kverneggen Øvreås, Thea Bøe, Gro Wivestad, Nenad Damjanic, Cathrine Brunborg, Sella Aarrestad Provan, Øyvind Molberg, Karoline Lerang

Bibliographic record

VenueThe Journal of Rheumatology · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicSystemic Lupus Erythematosus Research
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMedicineAntiphospholipid syndromeSystemic diseaseLupus erythematosusPopulationConnective tissue diseaseThrombosisInternal medicineImmunopathologyAutoimmune diseaseImmunologyDiseaseAntibody

Abstract

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PV021 / #98 Poster Topic: AS03 - Antiphospholipid Syndrome Background/Purpose Understanding how, when and in whom Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and thromboembolic events (TE) develops in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) is important as it may facilitate risk stratification and preventive strategies. Here, we aimed to track patients from SLE diagnosis and assess relationships between APS, TE and antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) during follow-up. Methods We included all new SLE patients residing in Southeast Norway 2000-2017. All patients had chart review confirmed diagnosis, fulfilled the 2019 European League Against Rheumatism and American College of Rheumatology SLE classification criteria and were captured within 1 year of diagnosis. Follow-up ended 1 January 2018. APS was defined by the 2006 Sydney classification criteria and aPL positivity referred to positive anticardiolipin, anti-b2glycoprotein and/or lupus anticoagulant following international guidelines. TE were defined by both arterial and venous events and included ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, angina pectoris or syndromes caused by occlusion of major venous vessel identified either by chart review or by ICD-10 code (I20-22, I63, G46, R96, I26, I80-I82) in The National Cause of Death Register. We estimated APS- and TE-free survival using Kaplan-Meier methods and identified factors associated with TE with Cox regression analysis. Results Among 700 new SLE patients, 79 (11%) had co-occurring APS after a mean follow-up of 8 years (SD 5). Compared to non-APS patients, APS patients more frequently had thrombocytopenia (25/79, 32% vs 123/621, 20%, p-value<0.012), neuropsychiatric lupus (6/79, 8% vs 16/621, 3%, p-value<0.016) and anti-dsDNA antibodies (66/79, 84% vs 450/621, 72%, p-value<0.035) at the time of SLE diagnosis, but mean age at SLE diagnosis (37, SD 15 vs 39, SD 17, p-value=0.309) and frequency of LN were the same (29/79, 37% vs 195/621, 31%, p-value=0.341). During follow-up, 54 SLE patient developed a new APS. At the time of SLE diagnosis, 45 of these 54 patients (83%) were aPL positive, 5 (9%) were aPL-negative and 4 (7%) had an unknown aPL status. The 5-year APS-free survival was higher in aPL-negative (0.99, 95% CI 0.97-1.00) than aPL-positive patients (0.80, 95% CI 0.74-0.85, p<0.001). (Figure 1) By the end of follow-up, 156 (22%) patients had experienced at least 1 TE, with a clear clustering around SLE diagnosis. Of the 36 TEs occurring in the same year as SLE diagnosis, 26 (64%) were related to new APS. (Figure 2) Excluding those with TE or APS prior to SLE diagnosis, we found that TE developed in 45/206 (22%) of aPL-positive patients, 31/332 (9%) of aPL-negative patients and in 13/88 (15%) of patients with unknown aPL status at time of SLE diagnosis. Overall, 10-year TE-free survival was 0.84 (95% CI 0.81-0.87). TE-free survival was lower in the aPL-positive patients than in the aPL-negative already 1 year after SLE diagnosis (0.88, 95% CI 0.83-0.92 vs 0.98, 95% CI 0.96-0.99, p-value<0.001). Stratified by age, aPL-negative patients <50 years at diagnosis had persistently high TE-free survival, while patients ≥50 at SLE diagnosis continued to develop TE across the follow-up period, both in aPL-negative and aPL-positive patients. (Figure 2) In multivariable analyses lupus anticoagulant, ≥2 aPLs and older age at SLE diagnosis were the individually factors with highest hazard ratios for new TE when adjusting for sex, ethnic ancestry and age. Figure 1. Figure 2. Conclusions This population-level study reveals a heightened risk of TE, particularly in the context of APS, around SLE onset. The elevated thromboembolic risk in new SLE requires attention and may call for preventive measures.

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How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.003
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.016
Threshold uncertainty score0.031

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.003
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.002
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.019
GPT teacher head0.306
Teacher spread0.287 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

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Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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