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Record W4410790771 · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/adcec5

Spinning Spectral Sirens: Robust Cosmological Measurement Using Mass–Spin Correlations in the Binary Black Hole Population

2025· article· en· W4410790771 on OpenAlexaff
Hui Tong, M. Fishbach, E. Thrane

Bibliographic record

VenueThe Astrophysical Journal · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldPhysics and Astronomy
TopicCosmology and Gravitation Theories
Canadian institutionsCanadian Institute for Theoretical AstrophysicsUniversity of Toronto
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPhysicsAstrophysicsBinary numberBlack hole (networking)Spin (aerodynamics)SpinningPopulationAstronomyBinary black holeCosmologyTheoretical physicsGravitational waveThermodynamics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Gravitational waves from compact binary mergers provide a direct measurement of luminosity distance, which, in combination with redshift information, serves as a cosmological probe. In order to statistically infer merger redshifts, the “spectral standard siren” method relies on features, such as peaks, dips, or breaks, in the compact object mass spectrum, which get redshifted in the detector frame relative to the source frame. However, if the source-frame location of these features evolves over cosmic time, the spectral siren measurement may be biased. Some features, such as the edges of the pair-instability supernova mass gap, may be more stable than others. We point out that binary black hole (BBH) spins, which are not redshifted in the detector frame, provide a natural way to identify robust mass scales for spectral siren cosmology. For example, there is recent evidence for a mass scale in the BBH population that separates slowly spinning from more rapidly spinning BBH mergers, consistent with the lower edge of the pair-instability gap. Applying our method to data from LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA’s third transient catalog, we demonstrate how to isolate this mass scale and produce a robust “spinning spectral siren” measurement of the Hubble constant H 0 = 8 5 − 67 + 99 km s − 1 Mpc − 1 , or H 0 = 8 0 − 46 + 60 km s − 1 Mpc − 1 when combined with other mass features, such as the ∼35 M ⊙ peak. We consider the possibility that the source-frame location of the ∼35 M ⊙ peak evolves with redshift and show that information from black hole spin can be used to mitigate the associated bias for self-calibrating spectral sirens.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.004
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.003
Threshold uncertainty score0.008

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.004
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0030.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.036
GPT teacher head0.284
Teacher spread0.249 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations8
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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