Estimating the Prevalence of Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder in Australia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) is caused by prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) and characterised by severe neurodevelopmental impairment. Australian studies have reported PAE prevalence of between 14% and 78% of births. Estimating national FASD prevalence in the general population using gold-standard active case ascertainment is costly and time-consuming, and alternative approaches are required. METHODS: Using a published equation for the risk of FASD following PAE (estimated from an international meta-analysis) and a pooled estimate of PAE prevalence in Australia (from a meta-analysis of 78 studies reporting 16 large general population-based birth cohorts between 1975 and 2018), we estimated the population prevalence of FASD. Monte Carlo simulations were used to determine confidence intervals. RESULTS: Estimated FASD prevalence in the general population was 3.64% (95% confidence interval 2.91%, 4.41%). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The estimated FASD prevalence in the general population of Australia was comparable to that in other high-income countries (e.g., USA, Canada). Although it is likely that certain vulnerable populations have significantly higher FASD prevalence, this estimate provides a baseline estimate for the general population to inform service development and strategies for prevention of FASD and guide future research.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".