The Remarkable Increase of the Invasive Autumn Fern, Dryopteris erythrosora, One of the World’s Most Marketed Ferns, in Eastern North America
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Autumn fern, Dryopteris erythrosora, is the most marketed temperate fern in the world. The rapid increase and spread of this recently naturalized fern in North America was determined and mapped using 76 herbarium specimen records and 2,553 Research Grade iNaturalist posts. In 2008, it was recorded from two states, but by 2025 it was found in 25 states in the eastern United States and in Ontario, Canada. At the end of 2017, there had been only 23 iNaturalist posts, but this grew to 511 by the end of 2020 and 2,553 by May 2025. The great increase in the number of iNaturalist posts is thought to be due to the real geographic spread and an actual increase in the abundance of the fern, as well as recognition of the fern by iNaturalists, and the increase in the number of iNaturalists. The spread and great increase are probably related to the high level of marketing, which introduces plants to the environment, and to biological characteristics of the fern, including apogamy and polyploidy and possibly natural enemy release, which allows it to flourish in new environments and to displace native plants. This study demonstrated citizen science’s (iNaturalist’s) great value to detect the naturalization and spread of alien plants.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".