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Record W4411190871 · doi:10.1101/2025.06.09.25329166

Development and validation of a Trans-Ancestry polygenic risk score for Type 1 Diabetes

2025· preprint· en· W4411190871 on OpenAlexafffundabout
Basile Jumentier, Hui‐Qi Qu, Tianyuan Lu, Kai Liu, Erica L. Kleinbrink, Kathleen Klein, Wiame Belbellaj, Isabel Gamache, Lauric A. Ferrat, Guillaume Butler‐Laporte, Yangxi Li, Håkon Håkonarson, Wei Wu, Constantin Polychronakos, Celia M.T. Greenwood, Despoina Manousaki

Bibliographic record

VenuemedRxiv · 2025
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldBiochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
TopicDiabetes and associated disorders
Canadian institutionsUniversité de MontréalMcGill University Health CentreMcGill UniversityJewish General HospitalCentre Hospitalier Universitaire Sainte-Justine
FundersFonds de Recherche du Québec - SantéNational Institutes of Health
KeywordsPolygenic risk scoreType 2 diabetesDiabetes mellitusType (biology)Type I and type II errorsStatisticsComputational biologyMedicineBiologyInternal medicineEconometricsGeneticsMathematicsEndocrinologyGenotypeGeneSingle-nucleotide polymorphismEcology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Objectives The high heritability of type 1 diabetes has enabled the development of polygenic risk scores (PRS) as disease risk screening tools. PRS can identify individuals at the highest genetic risk in a population, who can benefit from autoantibody and metabolic surveillance, to avoid ketoacidosis at diagnosis and access preventive therapies. However, PRS for type 1 diabetes developed from European data perform less well in non-European ancestries. We aimed to develop a PRS with comparable performance among different ancestries. Methods Using a the PRS-CSx method, and data from large European, East-Asian, African-American and Hispanic type 1 diabetes GWAS (N total_cases =29,469), we developed a trans-ancestry PRS (TA-PS), combining a non- HLA component incorporating over a million variants, with the HLA component of a published European PRS (GRS2x). We tested the performance of the PRS using AUROC, sensitivity and specificity in a multi-ancestry T1D case-control cohort (N total = 4,657; N non-European =556) from Montreal, Canada. We validated our results in two independent T1D case-control cohorts (CHOP-CAG and GRACE) and two population-based cohorts (All of Us and UK Biobank). Results In our multi-ancestry Montreal-based cohort, TA-PS showed an AUROC of 0.89 which was significantly higher from the AUROC of 0.85 of GRS2x. At a 90th percentile cut-off, in African-Americans, the sensitivity of GRS2x was 0.32, compared to 0.56 in Europeans. For TA-PS, we obtained overall better sensitivities, ranging from 0.71 in Europeans to 0.77 in South Asians. TA-PS demonstrated slightly lower albeit acceptable specificity compared to that of GRS2x (> 0.83 across all ancestries). These results were validated in the four independent cohorts. Conclusion We developed a trans-ancestry PRS that outperformed the European-based GRS2x. Importantly, TA-PS provides a comparable prediction in various ancestries, which supports its use in population-wide screening programs. Research in context What is already known about this subject? - Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for type 1 diabetes are primarily developed using data from individuals of European ancestry. - The widely used, European-based GRS2 score shows reduced performance in non-European populations, particularly among individuals of African descent. - There are concerns regarding the equity of genetic risk prediction in population-based screening programs for T1D. What is the key question? - Can a trans-ancestry PRS provide accurate and equitable type 1 diabetes risk prediction across ancestries? What are the new findings? - A new trans-ancestry score, TA-PS, was developed by integrating an optimized non- HLA PRS to GRS2. - Compared to GRS2, in multi ancestry case-control and population-based cohorts, TA-PS improves sensitivity across all ancestry groups while maintaining high specificity. How might this impact on clinical practice in the foreseeable future? - TA-PS could provide equitable genetic risk stratification in population-wide screening programs for type 1 diabetes.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.006
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.010
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Bench or experimental · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.016
Threshold uncertainty score0.032

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0060.010
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0030.002
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0010.002
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.023
GPT teacher head0.271
Teacher spread0.248 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designBench or experimental
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

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Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes3
Has abstractyes

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