Implementation costs and cost-effectiveness of ultraportable chest X-ray with artificial intelligence in active case finding for tuberculosis in Nigeria
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Availability of ultraportable chest x-ray (CXR) and advancements in artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled CXR interpretation are promising developments in tuberculosis (TB) active case finding (ACF) but costing and cost-effectiveness analyses are limited. We provide implementation cost and cost-effectiveness estimates of different screening algorithms using symptoms, CXR and AI in Nigeria. People 15 years and older were screened for TB symptoms and offered a CXR with AI-enabled interpretation using qXR v3 (Qure.ai) at lung health camps. Sputum samples were tested on Xpert MTB/RIF for individuals reporting symptoms or with qXR abnormality scores ≥0.30. We conducted a retrospective costing using a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches while utilizing itemized expense data from a health system perspective. We estimated costs in five screening scenarios: abnormality score ≥0.30 and ≥0.50; cough ≥ 2 weeks; any symptom; abnormality score ≥0.30 or any symptom. We calculated total implementation costs, cost per bacteriologically-confirmed case detected, and assessed cost-effectiveness using incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) as additional cost per additional case. Overall, 3205 people with presumptive TB were identified, 1021 were tested, and 85 people with bacteriologically-confirmed TB were detected. Abnormality ≥ 0.30 or any symptom (US$65704) had the highest costs while cough ≥ 2 weeks was the lowest (US$40740). The cost per case was US$1198 for cough ≥ 2 weeks, and lowest for any symptom (US$635). Compared to baseline strategy of cough ≥ 2 weeks, the ICER for any symptom was US$191 per additional case detected and US$ 2096 for Abnormality ≥0.30 OR any symptom algorithm. Using CXR and AI had lower cost per case detected than any symptom screening criteria when asymptomatic TB was higher than 30% of all bacteriologically-confirmed TB detected. Compared to traditional symptom screening, using CXR and AI in combination with symptoms detects more cases at lower cost per case detected and is cost-effective. TB programs should explore adoption of CXR and AI for screening in ACF.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it