The effect of environmental voter mobilization on voter turnout and environmental attitudes: evidence from a field experiment in British Columbia, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Environmental organizations play an active role in electoral politics, yet these interventions have received far less study than the movement’s efforts at public persuasion or policy advocacy. We examine the effect of environmental voter mobilization on turnout and attitudes among supporters of a Canadian environmental organization. Through a field experiment during the 2017 British Columbia election, we evaluate two prevalent types of get-out-the-vote (GOTV) conversations – a regular GOTV conversation focused on vote plan-making, and an issue GOTV conversation that first engaged respondents in a personal discussion about environmentalism. For both GOTV interventions, we estimate a positive yet borderline significant effect on turnout. Neither GOTV intervention strengthened environmental attitudes, and the regular GOTV intervention may have even decreased en-vironmental issue salience. Our research illuminates the challenges that climate advocates face in mobilizing their constituents, while demonstrating their potential for influence on the electorate.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.008 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".