Adult survival in a small seabird, <i>Hydrobates leucorhous,</i> covaries with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation over the past six decades
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Seabirds’ annual survival is influenced by numerous factors, but oceanic conditions are among the most significant. Indices used to monitor these conditions typically cycle over decades. Using the longest capture–mark–recapture (CMR) time series available for the species (1955–2023), we estimated apparent adult survival of Leach’s storm-petrels ( Hydrobates leucorhous ) from Kent Island, New Brunswick. We assessed whether survival covaried with large-scale oceanographic indices reflecting conditions at various periods in the life cycle. We used Cormack–Jolly–Seber CMR models to estimate the annual apparent survival rate. Mean annual survival was φ = 0.84 ± 0.01 over the 68-year study period, and was variable across years (range: 0.62 ± 0.06 to 0.97 ± 0.05) with a concentration of high values between 1979 and 1989. Adult survival rate was inversely proportional to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index with a small but significant effect ( β : −0.70 [−0.92 to −0.47], 13% of deviance explained), meaning low survival rates were associated with high AMO and indicating positive sea surface temperature anomalies over the North Atlantic. Such a relationship could only have been detected with extended long-term study since the AMO has a period of 60–80 years. Despite the challenges of maintaining long-term studies, they are more than ever essential in population ecology.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".